Insights Markets and Economy

Perspectives: Quarterly economic and market outlook — Fall 2024.

Our Multi-Asset and Currency Management team discusses the 12-month outlook for global markets, asset classes, currencies and commodities.

Michael Sager, Francis Thivierge and Vincent Lépine Nov. 29, 2024 2-minute read

Transcript for the video Perspectives: Quarterly economic and market outlook — Fall 2024. Opens a new window.

Our core economic views are little changed since the summer edition of Perspectives. We remain broadly constructive on the outlook for the global economy. The U.S. economy continues to set the pace amongst the major economies and consumer spending sustained domestic economic activity above trend. A benign slowing in U.S. growth remains likely in coming quarters, and a relatively soft landing appears in reach for the U.S. Federal Reserve. Inflation in the U.S., and elsewhere, continues to moderate and looks to be a weaker constraint on central bank policy decisions than it was at the beginning of 2024. With most major central banks now cutting interest rates, fiscal policy becoming more supportive of economic activity, and investment spending likely to become a tailwind, we continue to expect a gradual recovery in global gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

We also expect constructive economic conditions to foster a cautiously positive environment for risk-taking and investment performance over the next 12 months. Fundamental factors such as economic growth and inflation, interest rates, corporate profitability and technological innovation are the key drivers of longer-term investment performance. Within this outlook, we think equities and bonds can both make a positive contribution to investment performance. We currently see little reason to favour one asset class over the other relative to strategic allocation weights.

Also consistent with last quarter’s edition, political risk remains the key challenge to this cautiously constructive outlook. Geopolitical risks increased over the last three months and November’s U.S. presidential election is now top-of-mind for investors. Both are contributing factors to more volatility in markets — consistent with history. In particular, rising uncertainty associated with possible election-driven policy changes often encourages investors to try and time market participation. Frequently, this has proven to be the wrong decision. Staying invested in a well-diversified portfolio through short-term volatility — regardless of the source — has typically paid off.

At CIBC Asset Management, we’re committed to providing market insights and investment research. We hope our quarterly market and economic outlook are helpful as you find the right investment strategies that align with your portfolio goals. If you have questions or would like to discuss our insights and commentary, please contact your advisor or CIBC representative anytime.

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Presented by

Michael Sager, Ph.D.

Managing Director and Head, Multi-Asset and Currency Management
CIBC Asset Management

Francis Thivierge, M.Sc., CFA

Senior Portfolio Manager
Multi-Asset and Currency Management

Vincent Lépine

Director, Economic and Market Research
Multi-Asset and Currency Management

Perspectives: Quarterly economic and market outlook — Fall 2024.

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